“Will Ramaphosa get second term?” remains the predominant political question of 2022, but with Ramaphosa looking like the only serious contender for the ANC presidency, the question may become more of “what will Ramaphosa’s second term look like?” and “will he be able to shake off the ANC drag factor?”

Will it be based on the same rocky foundations as the first – a hollow victory and five more years of compromise and paralysis? Or, will a more comprehensive victory for the Ramaphosa forces breed “Cyril 2.0” – a powerful President with nothing to lose or fear in what would be his final term as President of the Republic?