POLITICAL BRIEFING BULLETIN 

FUEL, FOOD AND FRAGILITY

SOUTH AFRICA'S IRAN WAR RISK

A FATAL BLOW TO PRES. RAMAPHOSA?
MARCH AND MARCH

FEATURED IN THIS BULLETIN *

  • PART 1

    SOUTH AFRICA’S EXPOSURE TO THE IRAN CONFLICT

  • PART 2

    THE SIX KEY ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL RISKS

  • PART 3

    HOW THE CONFLICT COULD EVOLVE – AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

May 2026

The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran may unfold thousands of kilometres from South Africa, but its economic and political consequences could prove far closer to home. As global energy markets and supply chains remain under pressure, what are the key risks facing South Africa—and how might they reshape the country’s political and economic outlook? From inflation and interest rates to social stability and the Government of National Unity, our latest analysis explores the strategic questions and scenarios that decision-makers should be watching.

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