The winner is unlikely to take it all
After a gruelling 11 months of campaigning, it is still not clear who will win the race to succeed Jacob Zuma as ANC president. https://mg.co.za/article/2017-12-14-anc54-the-winner-is-unlikely-to-take-it-all/
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Power grab throws ANC off balance
Since 1994, power has shifted dramatically within the ANC. The ruling party’s electoral college, which in December will elect not only Jacob Zuma’s successor as leader of the party but also the all-important 80-member national executive committee (NEC), is notably different from two decades ago….
A Three-Layer Extrapolation for 2019 – Mining the Depth and Scope of the ANC Decline
THIS REPORT WAS FIRST PUBLISHED FOR THE ELECTORAL INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA (EISA) SOUTH AFRICA ELECTION UPDATE 2016 There has been much debate about the extent of, and the reasons for, the ANC's 'bad result' in the 'game-changing' August 2016 local government election....
WHAT IF… SOUTH AFRICA ‘DOES A BRAZIL’?
Political scenarios in a time of economic crisis. Brazil continues to reel from a combined political and economic crisis that saw the country downgraded to junk status by the ratings agencies and its economic growth fall to -4% earlier this year. No one predicted the...
Mining the depth and scope of the ANC’s decline
Nathan Dufour and Richard Calland Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA), 6 September 2016 There has been much debate about the extent of, and the reasons for, the ANC’s ‘bad result’ in the ‘game-changing’ August 2016 local government election. This article, written for...
African Political Insight no 2
WHAT NOW?: SA’s New Political Landscape: Three Fresh Scenarios SOUTH AFRICA’S political map has changed significantly. The coalition negotiations that have followed the local government elections have confirmed their game-changing implications. The ANC has suffered major setbacks, and has lost power in most of the...
African Political Insight no 1
WHAT NOW? : South Africa’s 2016 Local Government Elections SOUTH Africa’s local government elections have changed the political game. The ANC has suffered a significant blow, with its share of the vote falling beneath 55% nationally and beneath 50% in three key metropolitan areas –...
Business must win friends and influence government
Richard Calland and Lawson Naidoo Business Day, 4 May 2016 IN this article, the authors argue that the current phase of South African politics – complex, erratic, and increasingly risky — requires dexterity as well as a fundamental commitment by business to engage and to...
South Africa’s Moment of Truth: A critique of the report of the Marikana Commission of Inquiry
The Paternoster Group has released a ground-breaking analysis of the report of the Marikana Commission of Inquiry. Chaired by retired judge Ian Farlam, the commission was appointed to investigate ‘matters of public, national and international concern’ arising out of the events at Marikana in North...